The last few posts have discussed non-classical approaches to indeterminacy.
One of the big stumbling blocks about "folklore" non-classicism, for me, is the suggestion that contradictions (A&~A) be "half true" where A is indeterminate.
Here's a way of putting a constraint that appeals to me: I'm inclined to think that an ideal agent ought to fully reject such contradictions.
(Actually, I'm not quite as unsympathetic to contradictions as this makes it sound. I'm interested in the dialethic/paraconsistent package. But in that setting, the right thing to say isn't that A&~A is half-true, but that it's true (and probably also false). Attitudinally, the ideal agent ought to fully accept it.)
Now the no-interpretation non-classicist has the resources to satisfy this constraint. She can maintain that the ideal degree of belief in A&~A is always 0. Given that:
And now, whenever we fail to fully accept Av~A, it will follow that our credences in A and ~A don't sum to one. That's the price we pay for continuing to utterly reject contradictions.
The *natural* view in this setting, it seems to me, is that accepting indeterminacy of A corresponds to rejecting Av~A. So someone fully aware that A is indeterminate should fully reject Av~A. (Here and in the above I'm following Field's "No fact of the matter" presentation of the nonclassicist).
But now consider the folklore nonclassicist, who does take talk of indeterminate propositions being "half true" (or more generally, degree-of-truth talk) seriously. This is the sort of position that the Smith paper cited in the last post explores. The idea there is that indeterminacy corresponds to half-truth, and fully informed ideal agents should set their partial beliefs to match the degree-of-truth of a proposition (e.g. in a 3-valued setting, an indeterminate A should be believed to degree 0.5). [NB: obviously partial beliefs aren't going to behave like a probability function if truth-functional degrees of truth are taken as an "expert function" for them.]
Given the usual min/max take on how these multiple truth values get settled over conjunction and negation, for the fullyinformed agent we'll get p(Av~A) set equal to the degree of truth of Av~A, i.e. 0.5. And exactly the same value will be given to A&~A. So contradictions, far from being rejected, are appropriately given the same doxastic attitude as I assign to "this fair coin will land heads"
Another way of putting this: the difference between our overall attitude to "the coin will land heads" and "Jim is bald and not bald" only comes out when we consider attitudes to contents in which these are embedded. For example, I fully disbelieve B&~B when B=the coin lands heads; but I half-accept it for B=A&~A . That doesn't at all ameliorate the implausibility of the initial identification, for me, but it's something to work with.
In short, the Field-like nonclassicist sets A&~A to 0; and that seems exactly right. Given this and one or two other principles, we get a picture where our confidence in Av~A can take any value---right down to 0; and as flagged before, the probabilities of A and ~A carve up this credence between them, so in the limit where Av~A has probability 0, they take probability 0 too.
But the folklore nonclassicist I've been considering, for whom degrees-of-truth are an expert function for degrees-of-belief, has 0.5 as a pivot. For the fully informed, Av~A always exceeds this by exactly the amount that A&~A falls below it---and where A is indeterminate, we assign them all probability 0.5.
As will be clear, I'm very much on the Fieldian side here (if I were to be a nonclassicist in the first place). It'd be interesting to know whether folklore nonclassicists do in general have a picture about partial beliefs that works as Smith describes. Consistently with taking semantics seriously, they might think of the probability of A as equal to the measure of the set of possibilities where A is perfectly true. And that will always make the probability of A&~A 0 (since it's never perfectly true); and meet various other of the Fieldian descriptions of the case. What it does put pressure on is the assumption (more common in degree theorists than 3-value theorists perhaps) that we should describe degree-of-truth-0.5 as a way of being "half true"---why in a situation where we know A is halftrue, would we be compelled to fully reject it? So it does seem to me that the rhetoric of folklore degree theorists fits a lot better with Smith's suggestions about how partial beliefs work. And I think it's objectionable on that account.
[Just a quick update. First observation. To get a fix on the "pivot" view, think of the constraint being that P(A)+P(~A)=1. Then we can see that P(Av~A)=1-P(A&~A), which summarizes the result. Second observation. I mentioned above that something that treated the degrees of truth as an expert function "won't behave like a probability function". One reflection of that is that the logic-probability link will be violated, given certain choices for the logic. E.g. suppose we require valid arguments to preserve perfect truth (e.g. we're working with the K3 logic). Then A&~A will be inconsistent. And, for example, P(A&~A) can be 0.5, while for some unrelated B, P(B) is 0. But in the logic A&~A|-B, so probability has decreased over a valid argument. Likewise if we're preserving non-perfect-falsity (e.g. we're working with the LP system). Av~A will then be a validity, but P(Av~A) can be 0.5, yet P(B) be 1. These are for the 3-valued case, but clearly that point generalizes to the analogous definitions of validity in a degree valued setting. One of the tricky things about thinking about the area is that there are lots of choice-points around, and one is the definition of validity. So, for example, one might demand that valid arguments preserve both perfect truth and non-perfect falsity; and then the two arguments above drop away since neither |-Av~A nor A&~A|- on this logic. The generalization to this in the many-valued setting is to demand e-truth preservation for every e. Clearly these logics are far more constrained than the K3 or LP logics, and so there's a better chance of avoiding violations of the logic-probability link. Whether one gets away with it is another matter.]